Shipping Note: This item usually arrives at your doorstep in 10-15 days
Author: Robert Matthews
ISBN/UPC (if available): 9781781257494
'The need to understand chance, risk and uncertainty has never been more urgent. In the face of political upheaval, turmoil in financial markets and an endless litany of risks, threats and calamities, we all crave certainty.
In truth, it never existed. But that is no reason for fatalism — or for refusing to accept reality. The central message of this book is that while we can never be free of chance, risk or uncertainty, we now have the tools to take them on and win.'
This book gives everyone access to the power of probability. Everyone who's had to get to grips with chance -whether as professors, doctors, patients, publishers, gamblers, researchers, retailers, bankers or shoppers -knows how tricky even its simplest manifestations can be. Its workings are a constant challenge to common sense, and at once its danger and its allure.
Few subjects are so fascinating and profound, nor so relevant to everyday existence. Robert Matthews uses real-life cases to demonstrate different facets of the laws of probability. He shows just how huge their reach can be and that understanding how they work can change our view of a host of everyday phenomena as well as saving us a great deal of time, money and anxiety.
By the end of the book, readers will have discovered scores of really useful things, including: -how to understand and even predict coincidences -when an insurance policy is worth having, and when it's just a rip-off -how to judge a health recommendation as worth following or just a scare -why flex and fishing lines get tangled up -and how to cure the problem -when a scientific claim is a breakthrough or baloney -how to make an investment so as to maximise the return -the secrets of the Golden Rule of Gambling which reveal precisely when a bet can be justified and when it cannot - Dr Matthews's Laws of Improbability, which show how to spot false claims and dodgy statistics The chances are this will be one of the most valuable books you've ever read.
'Matthews makes important and exciting ideas accessible.'
== Science News
1. THE COIN-TOSSING PRISONER OF THE NAZIS
2. WHAT THE LAW OF AVERAGES REALLY MEANS
3. THE DARK SECRET OF THE GOLDEN THEOREM
4. THE FIRST LAW OF LAWLESSNESS
5. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF THAT?
6. THINKING INDEPENDENTLY IS NO YOLK
7. RANDOM LESSONS FROM THE LOTTERY
8. WARNING: THERE'S A LOT OF X ABOUT
9. WHY THE AMAZING SO OFTEN TURNS HO-HUM
10. IF YOU DON'T KNOW, GO RANDOM
11. DOING THE RIGHT THING ISN'T ALWAYS ETHICAL
12. HOW A LOT OF BULL SPARKED A REVOLUTION
13. HOW TO BEAT CASINOS AT THEIR OWN GAME
14. WHERE WISE-GUYS GO WRONG
15. THE GOLDEN RULE OF GAMBLING
16. INSURE IT — OR CHANCE IT?
17. MAKING BETTER BETS IN THE CASINO OF LIFE
18. TELL ME STRAIGHT, DOC — WHAT ARE MY CHANCES?
19. THIS IS NOT A DRILL! REPEAT: THIS IS NOT A DRILL!
20. THE MIRACULOUS FORMULA OF REVEREND BAYES
21. WHEN DR TURING MET REVEREND BAYES
22. USING BAYES TO BE A BETTER JUDGE
23. A SCANDAL OF SIGNIFICANCE
24. DODGING THE AMAZING BALONEY MACHINE
25. MAKING USE OF WHAT YOU ALREADY KNOW
26. I'M SORRY, PROFESSOR, I JUST DON'T BUY IT
27. THE AMAZING CURVE FOR EVERYTHING
28. THE DANGERS OF THINKING EVERYTHING'S NORMAL
29. UGLY SISTERS AND EVIL TWINS
30. GOING TO EXTREMES
31. SEE A NICOLAS CAGE MOVIE AND DIE
32. WE'VE GOT TO DRAW THE LINE SOMEWHERE
33. PLAYING THE MARKETS ISN'T ROCKET SCIENCE
34. BEWARE GEEKS BEARING MODELS